Karzai, whatever his motivations, can either gain BIG or lose BIG here. His assertion of autonomy over Afghanistan could lead to greater bargaining power with the US. OR, quite differently, it could cost him his seat at the helm. I think it is more likely Karzai will benefit from this little spat with the White House, since they know removing him could destabilize the whole country. They also know removing him would be step backwards.

No matter what happens, this incident highlights the game puppet governments play with their imperial masters. Like pubescent teenagers, they must rebel just enough to assert their authority and independence. But if they go too far, and crash Dad’s car, out comes the belt, or the Navy SEALs, as the case may be.