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Posts Tagged ‘recession’
The Grim Romer
Just this past Thursday, Christina Romer, a top economic adviser to the President, revealed a gloomy forecast. She is an expert on the Great Depression and an accomplished academic, so naturally you should consider her words prophecy…right? Maybe.
She said that the unemployment rate would rise to 10.1% and then dip back down to around 9.4% at the END of 2010. That’s a loooong time to keep extending those unemployment benefits. I mean, what do you say to the people who are currently unemployed? “Hey, guess what you’re gonna be doin’ next November…Nothin’ sucka! Back on the breadline!” Although, I do think depression counselors and suicide hotlines will experience moderate to high growth in the next few quarters…so not everyone loses.
She also said the stimulus had done most of its stimulating, even though only 15% of it was spent so far. So much for the Keynesian revolution. This is quite strange since the White House has said that the economy would resurrect in “fits and starts.”
All of these scary predictions are totally apropos, as Halloween is just around the corner…
slashing expectations
Recessions and Shark Attacks
According to MSNBC, many economists are saying the recession is “over.” Even Bernanke cautiously stated that it was “very likely” over. But what does “over” mean?
I assume this means economic expansion, rather than continued retraction….which doesn’t mean much. Economists like Paul Krugman have said that recessions caused by financial crises lead to long-lasting damage…the recovery from which may not let the economy “break even” after cyclical swings. Analogically, it is like surviving a shark attack where one of your limbs was bitten off. The doctors may declare that you are starting to “recover,” but that doesn’t mean your getting your leg back…sorry dude.
Dangerous Waters
